Tag Archives: Brian G. Long

GVSU economist: More growth, pace improves

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Brian Long, photo from gvsu.edu

By Dottie Barnes

GVSU

 

The economic pace for West Michigan picked up in the month of September, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

 

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of September.

 

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) edged up to +28, from +21. The production index rose sharply to +29, from +16. The index of purchases edged higher to +21, from +15, and the employment index improved to +29, up from +21.

 

Long said growth remains positive for most sectors in the West Michigan economy.

 

“Although auto sales continue to soften, the decline has, so far, been very orderly. Business conditions for the local auto parts suppliers remain positive,” Long said. “Although the office furniture business plateaued last year, the new tax incentives have continued to boost many segments of the industry. Local firms producing capital equipment are also continuing to benefit from the tax incentives enacted in late 2017.”

 

Long said the tax cuts will continue to move the U.S. economy in a positive direction, but uncertainty about the trade talks will limit future economic growth.

 

“Recessions have historically occurred when a proverbial ‘bubble breaks.’ The problem is identifying the bubble,” Long said. “After the collapse of the housing market, it was obvious that the banks buried themselves in sub-prime loans. Today, we have several bubbles that are starting to form, but none of them appear to be great enough to upset the current economic momentum.”

 

Long added the recent report of a new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico relaxed some of the fear of an international trade war.

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

GVSU economist: 2018 ‘bounce’ continues

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Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU

By Dottie Barnes

Grand Valley State University

 

For West Michigan, the first quarter of 2018 has started on strong footing, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

 

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of March.

 

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) rose to +34, slightly better than last month’s +32. The production index held steady at +31. The index of purchases jumped sharply to +37 from +22, and the employment index edged up to +19, from +16.

 

“The bounce we reported last month has continued and the general mood remains optimistic,” said Long, “but the pricing pressure brought on by the recently announced tariffs has added a new dimension of stress to many purchasing offices. We have not seen this level of price pressure in several years.”

 

Long said the “floodgates” of new orders were opened immediately after the corporate tax cuts were signed into law. He said the recent bounce in auto sales appears to have quelled the fears that local automotive parts producers may be starting to slow.

 

Despite the shortage of labor, Long said several companies are still growing. “The strength of the economy has resulted in the office furniture industry holding steady,” he said. “Although there are a couple of exceptions, most of our industrial distributors are participating in the uptick of business and almost all of the manufacturing firms still cannot find enough new workers to fill open positions.”

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

 

For over 28 years, Dr. Brian Long has edited a survey of local purchasing managers for both the Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids areas, which has proved to be a major indicator of current and future business conditions.  This survey appears in many local newspapers and national business publications, including the Grand Rapids Press, MiBiz, and the Grand Rapids Business Journal.  The survey is also a component of the Federal Reserve’s bimonthly survey of business conditions. 

GVSU economist: Postive growth continues

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Brian Long, photo from gvsu.edu

The West Michigan economy is going strong and the trend should continue, according to a Grand Valley State University expert.

 

Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business, surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of September.

 

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) came in at +21, above last month’s +19. The production index eased to +17 from +20. The index of purchases slowed to +14 from +24, and the employment index remained positive at +17, up from +21.

 

Long said for auto sales, the September report reversed the negative pattern of the past six months.

 

“Most auto parts suppliers have been concerned throughout the summer about the slower auto sales, so the September bounce in sales seems to have forestalled any immediate fear of an automotive recession lurking around the corner,” said Long. “The major office furniture firms still appear to be topping out at the present level, but the smaller firms are having a little more success.”

 

Business optimism is strong in West Michigan and the economy for the rest of the world continues to improve, Long said.

 

“Canada and Mexico, our two largest trading partners, turned in strong reports for September,” he said. “Whereas most of the major economies were improving over the summer, growth in September slowed in China, Japan and the UK.”

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

 

For over 28 years, Dr. Brian Long has edited a survey of local purchasing managers for both the Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids areas, which has proved to be a major indicator of current and future business conditions.  This survey appears in many local newspapers and national business publications, including the Grand Rapids Press, MiBiz, and the Grand Rapids Business Journal.  The survey is also a component of the Federal Reserve’s bimonthly survey of business conditions.