Meijer BeBop and Pixie Drone (Courtesy, GVSU/Meijer)
By Brian Vernellis
GVSU Communications
Grand Valley State University’s Annis Water Resources Institute (AWRI) will showcase an innovative, remote-controlled beach-cleaning device designed and deployed to collect refuse and plastic litter from Michigan beaches along the Great Lakes shorelines.
A Few Friends for the Environment of the World (AFFEW), a Ludington-based environmental nonprofit group, has invited the AWRI to publicly demonstrate the litter capture and cleanup device, called the BeBot, for an upcoming beach cleanup scheduled for July 17, from 7-8:30 p.m., at Ludington’s Stearns Park.
Models estimate as much as 22 million pounds of plastic every year could be entering the Great Lakes, the source of drinking water for 40 million Americans and Canadians. Plastic in the lakes and surrounding watersheds will cost hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars annually to combat.
Cleanup technology
Since 2022, Meijer has donated close to $2 million to the Council of the Great Lakes Region Foundation to expand the deployment of two plastic litter cleanup technologies, the BeBot and Pixie Drone. This is part of the Great Lakes Plastic Cleanup Program, a joint initiative of the Council of the Great Lakes Region and Pollution Probe in Canada.
Jamie Cross, outreach and science education instructor at AWRI, will be at Stearns Park to talk about BeBot and AWRI’s participation in the project.
The public is invited
AFFEW invites the public to watch BeBot in action as well as volunteer in the cleaning of Stearns Park’s beach.
Participants should meet at the south concession stand in Stearns Park. Bags and gloves will be provided.
For more information about this event or AFFEW, visit affew.org.
Key metrics show upward tick for the third consecutive month (Courtesy, pxhere.com)
By Brian Vernellis
GVSU Communications
A survey of West Michigan businesses and managers conducted by a Grand Valley State University (GVSU) researcher shows a promising trend of modest economic growth for the region’s economy.
Key metrics in the monthly survey conducted by Brian Long, Director of Supply Management Research at the Seidman College of Business, ticked upward for the third straight month. Despite this positive trajectory, some of April’s respondents approached the year’s second quarter with caution.
Maintaining momentum
(Courtesy, pxhere.com)
Long’s survey of the region’s purchasing managers pointed toward two pivotal indices rising in April. New orders, or business improvement, rose six points while production, or business output, climbed 14 points.
Long said industries like auto parts suppliers and office furniture manufacturers are maintaining their momentum, despite challenges in the global supply chain.
“I do believe that at least some of our statistics will moderate as the summer moves along, but there’s still no sign of an impending doom even if the economy does slow down some, which is what the Federal Reserve wanted to happen,” said Long. “They just don’t want it to slow down too much.”
Continued caution among survey respondents
Even with the encouraging numbers in the GVSU survey, Long noted that among surveyed respondents the mood was decidedly reserved, pointing toward slower growth over the next few months.
“Locally, our current statistics depict stable growth, but our April anecdotal comments from our survey participants continue to grow more cautious,” Long said. “In general, the survey respondents now expect slower growth for the next few months, but still little probability of a recession for the rest of 2024.”
(Courtesy, pxhere.com)
West Michigan key index results
Here is a look at the key index results from April’s survey of West Michigan businesses:
New orders index (business improvement): +16 vs. +10 in March
Brian Long is a local business forecaster. (Courtesy, GVSU)
Local manufacturers are seeing the West Michigan economy flatten as sales across some industries have slowed and market demand has stabilized, according to a monthly survey conducted by Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research at Grand Valley’s Seidman College of Business.
Long said his August report shows several key indicators from July have flattened after fluctuating from the previous few months.
“Our most important index in our survey of purchasing managers is new orders,” Long said. “When new orders are coming in strong to just about any firm, they start buying more materials, more equipment, more industrial services and eventually of course, hiring more people, but the impact on the financial and employment statistics may not show up for weeks or even months.
“So right now, with most of our recent orders indexes turning in flat or stable, we have to declare that the West Michigan economy is stable, neither expanding or contracting.”
While the strong demand for cars and light trucks is helping the automotive industry prosper, suppliers in the office furniture sector are seeing their segment soften, Long said.
“Statistically, this month’s survey of purchasing managers in West Michigan is about as flat as it can possibly be,” Long said. “However, it is our automotive parts producers that are holding us up. Other industries like office furniture are softening, but again, I say softening and not collapsing like we would expect in a recession.”
Here is a look at the key index results from July’s survey of West Michigan manufacturers:
New orders index (business improvement): 0 versus +9 in June
Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU
The “back-to-work euphoria” of January has faded and economic indicators edged back into negative territory in West Michigan during February, according to the latest survey from Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.
The Current Business Trends survey of West Michigan manufacturers released March 8 found key indexes sliding as new orders and production soured after an unexpectedly rosy outlook in January.
“Overall we had expected business conditions to soften in 2023 and this month’s report is a confirmation of that trend,” said Brian Long, director of supply chain management research at the Seidman. “We expect interest rate-sensitive industries to retreat, but are still expecting that the pent-up demand for automotive will keep the West Michigan economy positive.”
Based on responses from the survey, Long said he also expects a positive outlook from aerospace firms, while the prospects for the office furniture business “remain far less certain.”
“However, even if the markets for office furniture remain soft, a major collapse like we’ve seen in other downturns is unlikely,” Long concluded.
Both the short- and long-term business outlook indexes slid back into negative territory after showing a more upbeat outlook in January.
Broader indicators are showing the world economy proving resilient despite the war in Ukraine, Long said.
“The world economy is not as grim as you might imagine,” he said. “The J.P. Morgan international survey of purchasing agents indicates that we are absolutely at break-even now. Some countries are down, but enough countries are up right now that the average is at a break-even point.”
GVSU’s Current Business Trends survey indexes are tracked based on whether survey respondents report “up,” “same,” “down” or “N/A” to questions about business conditions.
Here’s a look at some key indexes:
Sales (new orders): -17 in February vs. +18 in January
Production: -7 in February vs. +21 in January
Employment: +17 in February vs. +18 in January
Lead times also improved in the survey, which Long noted was a strong indicator that supply chains are continuing to loosen up, despite continued shortages and high prices for specific commodities.
West Michigan’s economy took an expected turn into a “shallow recession” in October. (Photo from Pxhere.com)
West Michigan’s economy took an expected turn into a “shallow recession” as area manufacturers are reporting inflation-related headwinds and a slow-down in demand, according to an October survey of purchasing managers by Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.
Brian Long, director of supply chain management research at Seidman, said the downturn came as no surprise, with local results mirroring national ones.
“If we compare our statistics with those being collected at the national level, we see a pattern of economic erosion with higher interest rates around the world and the ongoing war in Ukraine,” Long said. “We can probably expect both our local and national statistics at the industrial level will probably continue to soften.”
The key new orders index made a turn into double-digit negative territory for the first time in 30 months, amid inflationary pressures, softening demand and uncertainty in the market.
Employment and purchasing indices also were in negative territory, with an increasing number of companies reporting investments in those areas were down versus the previous month.
Meanwhile, production, or gross output, grew during October as some manufacturers continue scrambling to meet demand in sectors like the auto industry, where supply chain issues have hampered business growth.
“Just like last month, the market for office furniture has continued to soften, but pent-up demand for new cars will most likely keep our West Michigan auto parts suppliers and the assembly lines running for the foreseeable future,” Long said. “The comments from our survey participants have now turned increasingly tenuous, and some firms are openly bracing for an impending recession.”
More information about this month’s survey results and an archive of previous survey data is available at the Seidman College of Business website.
Energy costs may offset lower costs in other areas. (pxhere.com)
The West Michigan economy appears to have flattened, but has not yet contracted into a recession, according to the latest monthly survey data released by Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.
The September survey of purchasing managers conducted by Brian Long, director of supply chain research at GVSU, found steady demand among automotive suppliers offsetting more negative news about orders coming from sectors like the office furniture industry.
“Of our cyclical industries in West Michigan, our automotive parts producers are continuing to stay fairly busy, but not so much so with our office furniture companies and anything related to capital equipment where the markets are starting to soften — not collapse — just soften,” Long said.
Lower commodity prices for goods like metals and plastic resins will take months to find their way into consumer prices, while energy costs could offset lower costs in some areas, he said.
For the survey, released Oct. 10, the sales/new orders index was flat in September after going into negative territory in July and August.
Production levels were also flat, with a majority of survey respondents reporting output being the same as it was in August.
Long said he’s about 80 percent certain the region is sliding into a “shallow recession,” based on the national trends and feedback he hears from inside the region’s industrial employers.
“The confidence situation has clearly worsened the short-term business outlook index for September,” he said. “However, the long-term business outlook, which queries perceptions for the next three to five years, still remains positive, just not nearly as strong as it was six months ago.”
Local law enforcement and the Better Business Bureau share tips on how to recognize credit card scams and how consumers can protect themselves. (Image Courtesy, pxhere.com)
By D.A. Reed, WKTV Contributing Writer
Since the inception of credit and debit cards, fraud has become more and more widespread.
And with the current culture of communicating and ordering online, scammers are getting creative — and consumers are scrambling to sort fact from fiction in an effort to keep their finances and identities safe.
“Be an informed consumer, that’s the best advice I can give you,” said Troy Baker, education foundation director of the Better Business Bureau (BBB).
As of June 30, 2022, the Federal Trade Commission received nearly 1.1 million consumer reports about fraud nationwide. Of this total number, 214,446 reported using some type of payment method, with 42,545 consumers reporting paying with a credit card for a total loss of $110.4 million. This puts the average consumer loss at $2,595.
Subscription scams
According to Baker, the BBB classifies credit card cons into four categories. The most common are subscription scams cloaked in offers of free trials. Hidden in the fine print of that free trial is the agreement to sign up for a subscription.
Year to date, the Federal Trade Commission reports credit card loss at $110.4 million. (Image Courtesy, pxhere.com)
Baker said consumers think they have been victims of fraud or that their card has been stolen, “but really, you had given them permission by doing this free trial. They hide the agreement in the fine print a couple pages deep on the website, and usually you have a very short window to cancel before that subscription kicks in and you get billed the next month.”
In other words, consumers have approved the use of their credit card without knowing it.
Phishing emails and text messages
Phishing emails and text messages also are popular among scammers, stating a credit card has been opened in the consumer’s name and to click on a link if they did not, in fact, open that card.
“We also see scams where someone is told they have some form of debt outstanding or have a warrant out for them and the caller will demand payment in the form of gift cards,” said Lieutenant Rory Allen, Wyoming Department of Public Safety.
This con plays on the fears of the consumer.
“The consumer thinks maybe I should click on this link to make sure they don’t bill me for something,” Baker explained. “That’s what the scammers want. They want you to feel that confusion and click on the link thinking your taking action to protect yourself when, in reality, the action you are taking is going to harm you.”
Computer repair scams
Both Allen and Baker have seen computer service cons where scammers tell consumers there is something wrong with their computer but the scammer can fix it for them. Once they have the consumer’s credit card number, they disappear.
Fraud reports by payment method, 2022 YTD. (Courtesy, Federal Trade Commission 2022)
Online holiday shopping scams
Baker said another issue is consumers buying items on websites they are not familiar with.
“We especially see this closer to Christmas,” Baker said. “Scrolling through social media, you see the things that really catch your eye and seem like a great deal. So you click buy and put your credit card in, thinking that you’re going to get this great deal, when it turns out the company isn’t real or doesn’t have the track record that you think it does, and they don’t deliver what they promised. But they’ll charge your credit card for it.”
Banks and credit unions have put security measures in place to protect consumers, but scammers still manage to get through.
A local consumer’s personal story
Kelly* (name changed at the source’s request), a Rockford resident, told WKTV that her husband’s card was used to make charges in Louisiana and Arkansas at gas stations and Walmart stores, with the charges anywhere from $40 to $300.
Adding to their confusion was the fact that the charges were happening in different places at the same time.
Kelly happened to see the charges on the credit card statement and called the bank to report them as fraud. The bank shut down the card and refunded their money, but the mental and emotional damage has remained.
“I’m paranoid now and check our bank account and credit card account every day — still all these years later,” Kelly said.
Kelly and her husband still don’t know how the scammers obtained their card number.
Corrections time-consuming
Allen said frustration and anger in the victim is normal.
“It can be a lot of work to correct the issue if a credit/debit card is used in a fraud,” Allen explained. “In addition to the financial burden, it costs victims wasted time correcting the issue, filing reports, etc.”
Another local resident’s account
Stacy* (name changed at the source’s request), a West Michigan resident, said her husband’s credit card was used for seven fraudulent charges totaling approximately $1,200 on Walmart.com back in December 2021 — and the issue wasn’t fully resolved until April 2022.
Stacy and her husband reported the charges as fraud to their bank, who said they would close down the account.
“Then we get a letter in the mail saying that unfortunately the merchant has provided us with proof that you have received said items,” Stacy said.
Stacy asked to see their proof and was provided with FedEx tracking numbers that stated the items ordered had been delivered to her address. The order contained Stacy’s address, her husband’s name, and phone number, but an unknown email for confirmation and delivery status. The email IP address was based in Holland.
“It’s still a mystery,” Stacy continued. “I don’t know the scam; I’d love to know the scam. It made me so mad that someone could do this and stick me with the charges.”
It was April 2022 before the bank finally took the charges off their credit card statements for good.
Allen said fraud can cost citizens thousands of dollars each and cause long-lasting effects on finances and credit scores.
The FTC received 10,926 identity theft reports from Michigan consumers, 2022 YTD. Of this total number, 3,853 reported credit card fraud. (Courtesy, Federal Trade Commission 2022)
How can consumers protect themselves?
“We advise anyone who believes they are a victim of fraud to contact the police as soon as possible to file a report,” Allen said.
“If you believe a credit/debit card is being used by someone else, then contact your bank or credit company as soon as possible to turn the card off to avoid further charges.”
Is it really free?
Baker advises being wary of anything offered for free where the consumer only has to pay shipping and handling.
“There will be a catch,” Baker said. “Usually, it’s a (hidden) subscription.”
Slow down and research
Baker also advises taking your time.
“Before you put your credit card in, before you buy something, make sure you’ve done your research on the company you’re buying from. Take your time before you make that purchase decision. That time is really going to protect you from a lot of these scammers.”
And — even with the amount of credit card fraud out there — Baker said consumers should still use their credit cards and that they are still the safest route for a consumer to go when making purchases.
“While there is certainly a lot of credit card fraud, our advice is to use your credit card when you make these kinds of purchases,” Baker explained. “At least with a credit card, there are some protections for you. You can dispute the charges, you can work with your bank if there is fraud. And in many cases, there is a mechanism to get some or all of your money back.”
D. A. (Deborah) Reed is an award-winning author of young adult novels and a creative writing instructor from the Grand Rapids area. To find out more about D.A. Reed, visit her website: D.A. Reed Author
Strong hiring trends, lower commodity prices and high demand for automobiles continue to buoy the Michigan economy even as other indicators signal an economic slowdown.
That’s the conclusion of the August purchasing managers survey for the Institute for Supply Management released Sept. 6 by Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business. Brian Long, director of supply management research at GVSU, said this month’s survey serves as yet another mixed bag with respondents from local manufacturers taking business on a day-to-day basis.
“Locally, we certainly have some indications that our economy is beginning to slow, but we do not yet have evidence that we are now or are about to enter a recession,” said Long, who has been conducting the survey of West Michigan businesses for more than 28 years. “However, if our index of new orders continues to slide, we’re going to have to reassess our position.”
Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU
Some key findings from this months survey include:
The new orders/sales index in August slipped to -5 from -3 in August, indicating a further erosion in sales among those surveyed
The survey’s production index saw a positive swing from +7 to +17, as did the long-term business outlook index, which rose to +28 from +12.
The short-term business outlook index also swung back into positive territory during August, going from -2 in July to +2.
Long said commodity prices for key industrial supplies like copper, some forms of steel, lead, zinc and oil continued dramatic declines, but those decreases typically do not translate into near-term changes in the retail market, where prices remain elevated.
“Industrial deflation does not easily spill over to the consumer market,” Long said. “So the Federal Reserve is still going to have to raise interest rates considerably to control consumer inflation.”
Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU
West Michigan’s economy has flattened, following a national and worldwide trend, according to a report released Monday by Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research at Grand Valley’s Seidman College of Business.
So, is the nation in a recession?
Long said he’s not quite ready to say so, given the complexities that go into determining when a recession begins or ends. However, he does think the nation is “very likely to slide into an official recession in the near future.”
“I’m sticking with an 80 percent likelihood of recession right now because, the future being what it is, things could change,” he said. “There’s a possibility that we might skate by, but it’s growing increasingly unlikely as time goes by.”
The key sales index, indicating new orders, sank into negative territory, according to the results of the survey of West Michigan manufacturers.
“Although many factories are still operating at or near capacity, higher commodity prices and rapidly rising transportation costs continue to restrict the profitability for many firms,” Long said in the report. “Even though business conditions remain modestly positive for some survey respondents, the talk of an impending recession is resulting in many expansion plans being put on hold.”
Automotive suppliers, though still hampered by chip shortages, are expected to weather any economic storm better than other sectors due to continued pent-up demand for new cars, Long said.
Key metrics in the July survey were a mixed bag: • The sales index, reflecting new orders came at -3 after being +26 in June • Production, or output, softened to +7 from +31 in June • Employment remained strong, reaching +27, up from +23 the previous month
Long cautioned against putting too much weight on the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in determining the start of a recession.
While economists once used two consecutive quarters of negative GDP reports as a signal of the start of a recession, thinking has evolved in recent decades to include other factors such as income, employment, unemployment, industrial production, capital investment and consumer spending, he said.
With prices continuing to skyrocket, Michigan residents and business owners search for the reason behind the perpetual inflation, and when it might end.
Global issue as well
Many economists and local business leaders say increasing costs for businesses are the driving force behind rising prices. And that continuing inflation is a concern not only statewide, but nationally and globally as well.
As the world emerges from the emergency status of the COVID-19 pandemic, business owners and consumers are fighting against ongoing residual effects, namely inflation. Due to supply issues during the pandemic and current labor shortages, prices for everyday goods have skyrocketed, with consumer prices up 9.1 percent over year end June 2022. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Exercise patience
Despite the economic concern, Keith Morgan, president and CEO of the Wyoming-Kentwood Chamber of Commerce, advises community members to, “Temper your decisions…exercise patience. It’s not as bad as they make it seem…and it’s not as good as some people think it may be.”
Keith Morgan, president and CEO of the Wyoming-Kentwood Chamber of Commerce. (Courtesy)
In regard to business owners, “The biggest impact right now that businesses need to be aware of, the key is, preparation,” said Morgan to WKTV. Most small businesses are not prepared for crises such as a pandemic. “A business is going to typically have a 6-month runway (also known as a reserve) if they are in a good position…some may have 12 months. Very few are going to have 24 months.”
With the pandemic lasting longer than businesses anticipated, several owners found themselves floundering.
“What a lot of people are experiencing,” continued Morgan, “is that they are having to pivot. They are forced to reevaluate their paradigm. The businesses that have done well are the ones that are finding ways to provide different services or provide different products…and finding avenues to be more efficient.”
Government help available
Morgan also revealed that government help is available for businesses, but that many organizations are hesitant to take advantage of different funds that are available, such as ARPA (American Rescue Plan Act) funds, due to not having information about those advantages.
Local Chamber of Commerce networks offer professional advisors and relationships business owners can take advantage of, and that can help them understand that information so they can make better decisions.
Some aspects of the inflation crisis, however, cannot be avoided.
Labor shortages
Labor shortages have had a large bearing on inflation. With fewer workers available for businesses to draw on, they are finding the need to offer incentives, such as higher pay rates and benefits. Something that will make a “significant difference” in employer expenses, Morgan said.
Tim Mroz, senior vice president of Community Development for The Right Place. (Courtesy)
Tim Mroz, senior vice president of Community Development for The Right Place, agrees that one of the prevailing struggles is “the ability for employers to stay competitive with wages, and employees to keep up with the cost of living.”
Offering such incentives, however, increases cost to the employer. “Companies just can’t eat that total cost,” Morgan said. “So that cost has to be passed on to the consumer who is buying your service or product.”
The company that offers that service or product now must raise that rate to be able to account for the additional cost to their business. Add in meeting profit margins and expectations from investors, and that cost increases exponentially.
Supply chain issues
Supply chain issues are also a large factor of inflation.
“The good news is that we are seeing progress,” Mroz continued. “I think we’ve gotten beyond the emergency situation we were in a year ago during COVID. The supply chain issues we’re seeing today are a little more targeted at certain materials.”
Those manufacturers who are still experiencing supply issues, however, are now finding the problem compounded by rising prices when they can acquire those materials.
“Steel prices are still a challenge, both for construction steel and coiled steel.” At local steel manufacturers, Mroz said, “There is very little inventory. What they do have they are moving as fast as possible.
“Since 2020 to current quarter, construction prices have just about doubled. If it’s not under control soon, we’re going to start seeing pullbacks in the construction and development industry. That’s concerning because we need housing.”
Jason Parsons, senior construction project manager for Habitat for Humanity of Kent County, told WKTV that “All of the materials I have delivered to site, they are all adding a fuel surcharge onto the bill, which didn’t used to be there. We are getting regular cost increases on windows, siding, roofing.”
Parsons says it is not any one thing causing the increase.
“I think it’s the supply chain problems, it’s the delivery chain and trucking costs, manufacturers are having a difficult time keeping enough labor. They aren’t producing as much as they were, so they are charging more for what they are producing.”
Compounding the problems brought on by a lack in available materials is a shortage of truck drivers. That shortage has cost site workers delays as they wait for materials to be delivered.
“It’s a synergistic type of system that one thing doesn’t just affect one other piece,” Morgan explained. “One thing can affect 17 other pieces down the road, and they all work together.”
A social aspect also comes into play due to a growing mentality that there is no better time to raise rates because people are expecting it. Morgan mentioned the current gas market, observing that prices are unlikely to decrease back to yesterday’s normal, even if cost improves for the buyer because “(consumers) are used to paying it, and willing to pay it, and are paying it,” thus increasing the buyer’s profit margin.
These thoughts are supported by a current podcast, Trend Talks with ITR Economics, specifically episodes from “The Consumer, Interest Rates, and Gas Prices” with Alan Beaulieu, March 18, 2022, and “Pricing at the Peak” with Connor Lokar, January 14, 2022.
Over the 12 months ended June 2022, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 9.1 percent. The 9.1-percent increase in the all items index was the largest 12-month increase since the 12-month period ending November 1981. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Will consumers see a decrease in prices?
Morgan says yes, but it will take time.
“Inflation will decrease due to what the market can bear,” he explained. “Prices are based off of what people will buy.”
Parsons agreed.
“It’s all supply and demand. If supply increases and demand goes down, the prices will come down. They have to.”
Federal Reserve taking action
The Federal Reserve has already taken action by purposely increasing their rates.
“The Federal Reserve has the most impact on the value of a dollar,” Morgan said. “They can change the numbers, which will tighten up the financial market and the base has to follow suit. If they (Federal Reserve) tighten up the economy, and people aren’t able to go out and get as many loans, they can’t do as many things, then that will typically drive the prices back down because you have a surplus in the market.”
No easy fix
Even so, Morgan believes it will be a minimum of a year to bring the economy back down from inflation, with economists saying it could be as long as 18 to 24 months. But Morgan cautions that a lot can happen in 24 months, and to “temper your plans and expectations. There is really no easy fix.”
Both Morgan and Mroz agree that Michigan is not alone in its struggles.
A global problem
“This isn’t a Michigan-specific issue,” Mroz said. “It’s a national issue, I would argue that it’s even an international issue. Everybody is dealing with this right now, with global finance as connected as it is.”
Close to retirement?
When asked how the average consumer can prepare or help themselves right now, Morgan said each individual and family situation is different and dependent upon their needs but did suggest that those close to retirement pull their money from the market now and put that money in a savings account with very low risk.
“Economists are saying that, unless you have a 2-year runway where you can stay in the market without making any change, you need to get your money in a place where you’re not going to earn much interest, but at least you’re not going to lose much either, because the markets have trended downward,” Morgan said.
Despite the difficulties many individuals and business owners face, Morgan offers hope.
“We are not in an economy where we don’t have money,” Morgan explained. “We are experiencing inflation and it’s a concern, but it’s not such a concern to the extent that we are going to change our buying habits or change our lifestyle.”
By David Stanley Integrity Financial Services, LLC
Hurricanes to the weather can impact the U.S. economy. (pxhere.com)
Hurricane Ida, COVID- 19 and a February winter weather disaster in the United States and Mexico; many other catastrophes and worries abound. What issues currently confront the U.S. economy? The answer is multi-level but can be summed up as:
1) The collapse of an economy (potential)
2) Inflation
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In West Michigan and across the country, supply chain problems have resulted in longer lead times, missed deliveries, higher prices and sometimes exorbitant expediting charges, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business at Grand Valley State University.
Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of October.
“What seems most worrisome to some of our survey participants is that there is still no end in sight for our supply chain problems. Although these supply chain gremlins are inhibiting the West Michigan economy, modest economic growth continues,” Long said.
Most automotive manufacturers are extremely frustrated by the fact they cannot build or ship most of their cars because of a shortage of $15 worth of computer chips, Long said.
“Throughout the chip crunch, automakers have prioritized output of large pickups, some of the industry’s most profitable vehicles,” he said. “Ford and Ram are among automakers offering zero percent financing for 72 months on large pickups. At the same time, competition in the segment is increasing with a redesigned Toyota Tundra and the industry’s first electric pickup, the Rivian R1T, on the horizon.”
Addressing inflation, Long said the Federal Reserve is still sticking with its theory that the current inflation is “transitory.”
“They won’t say how long before we can expect to ‘transition’ out of the high inflation we are currently experiencing,” he said.
Highlights of Long’s October report:
The Index of Employment remained positive at +24, down from +27.
New orders, or the Index of Business Improvement, rose to +15 from +8.
The Production Index, or output, rebounded sharply to +19, up from -1.
The Index of Purchases eased to +8 from +14.
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
Pent-up supply demand has been satisfied causing the West Michigan economic recovery to continue to flatten, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business at Grand Valley State University.
Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU
“Our index of business improvement came in at +8,” said Long. “The pent-up demand has been satisfied, but supply chain constraints are holding back further progress.”
There is no end in sight for the on-going computer chip shortage, said Long, and automotive customers, dealers and manufacturers are all growing increasingly frustrated.
“The auto industry continues to be stymied by the shortage of computer chips, resulting in reduced production schedules affecting local auto suppliers. Some experts believe this crisis could extend for another full year,” he said.
Employers continue to experience a shortage of workers. Long said there are a record number of job postings in West Michigan and across the country. “We have to get people who dropped out of the workforce back to work,” he said.
Highlights of Long’s September report:
The Index of Employment remained positive, and rose to +27 from +19. It would be stronger if there were more people to hire.
Bad news for the widely publicized chip shortage. There is no end in sight for the chip shortage. Tech companies are reluctant to add capacity for the types of chips needed for automotive. Because of the chip shortage, auto sales have fallen to levels last seen in the Great Recession.
The production index has turned slightly negative (-1) for the first time in 14 months.
To attract new employees, about a third of all firms have raised their starting wage. Others are offering signing bonuses to avoid getting locked in to higher wages. Some economists are concerned we could be developing a wage-price spiral leading to cost-push inflation.
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU
Although still positive, the recovery for the West Michigan industrial economy has slowed considerably in recent weeks, according to Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business at Grand Valley State University.
Long said the slowdown is expected at this stage of an economic recovery because of pent-up demand.
Long said the worldwide chip shortage is hampering auto production for almost every nameplate in the world. Dealer lots are predominately empty and Long said it may be 2022 before supply catches up with demand.
Highlights from Long’s economic report:
New orders, the index of business improvement, came in at +14 – typical of the recovery from most recessions once the initial pent-up demand has been satisfied.
The on-going chip shortage has washed backward into the automotive supply chain, causing slowdowns or temporary stoppages in production. The production index tapered to +11.
Staffing continues to be a major problem for many firms, even though some have raised their starting wage and offered signing bonuses. Many economists are concerned about a wage-price spiral.
Despite the Covid Delta Variant, the JPM international survey posted at 54.1, only a little below the all-time high of 56 set in May. The supply chains of the world continue to show no sign of returning to normal.
The employment index remained positive at +19, but would be stronger if there were people to hire. With some of the generous unemployment benefits coming off line, there is speculation that the employment situation will improve in coming months.
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
After four months of a gut-wrenching decline, the West Michigan industrial economy has returned to positive territory, for now, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.
Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of July.
The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) came in at +12, considerably better than the -7 reported last month. In a similar move, the production index rallied to +14 from -11. The index of purchases bounced to +10 from -13, and the employment index rose to -4 from -13.
Long said West Michigan manufacturing firms are gradually resuming “modified” normal operations, although some are still hampered by disrupted supply chains and shipping bottlenecks.
He said many office furniture customers are currently reevaluating office configurations from a social distancing perspective. “Some office furniture firms have partially transitioned into the medical furniture business, but readjustment for this industry may be slow,” said Long.
Automotive suppliers may suffer some temporary setbacks, but Long said reshoring may provide new opportunities, given that many local firms have proven themselves to be world competitive. And, unlike the previous recession, Long said the residential real estate market has not collapsed, and the housing valuations in some areas of the county are actually rising.
Long added sit-down restaurants have been hardest hit, and returning to normal will be very slow for those that survive.
“The restaurant take-out business has soared, but not enough to make up for the lost sit-down sales in traditional restaurants,” he said. “Some fast food outlets have actually seen increases in business because of the popularity of drive-thru window service. With more people eating at home, the grocery business is booming, and the grocery delivery segment has more than doubled. Many changes like this are likely here to stay.”
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU
With many West Michigan production facilities resuming marginal operations, the pent-up demand has brought economic statistics back closer to break-even, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.
Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of June.
The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) came in at -7, considerably better than the -32 reported in May. In a similar move, the production index rallied to -11 from -35. The index of purchases recovered to -13 from -32, and the employment index rose to -13 from -38.
Long said many local manufacturing firms have resumed partial production schedules. He said statewide unemployment improved modesty to 21.2 percent from 24 percent, the third highest in the nation.
It appears the West Michigan automotive industry stands the best chance for recovery over the short term, compared to the office furniture and aerospace industries, said Long.
“The office furniture industry is still shipping orders that were placed before the crisis, so we don’t know what the October order books will look like,” he said. “Home offices will become a bigger market in the future, but our local firms do not seem to have many entries for this market.”
Long added the implementation of face masks and social distancing can allow for much of the manufacturing industry to reopen.
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU
Although local economic statistics for May are negative, it now appears the worst of the COVID-19 driven recession is over and the recovery has begun, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.
Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of May.
The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) edged up to -32 from -45. In a similar move, the production index recovered to -35 from -48. The index of purchases reduced its loss to -32 from -44, and the employment index edged up to -38 from -41.
“Many of our survey participants are still working from home or working on a reduced office-sharing schedule,” said Long. “Many of our supply chains have been shaken, and restarting production will not be easy. As businesses around West Michigan continue to reopen, we can expect next month’s statistics to continue to slowly improve.”
Long said many analysts are thanking internet sales for saving the auto industry from total ruin; he said although May sales are significantly lower than in May 2019, the drop was not nearly as steep as some had expected.
Unemployment stats statewide are among the worst ever recorded, said Long. Of the 83 counties in Michigan, the estimated unemployment rate ranged from 14.5 percent to 41.2 percent. Ottawa County, which often boasts the lowest rate in the state, came in at 21.2 percent. Kent County was close behind at 21.6 percent.
Long said barring a relapse in the fall, history will record either March or April as the bottom of the 2020 Recession.
“We can expect some additional improvement in next month’s report,” he said. “We do not consider a recession to be over until we return to full employment, which took about seven years for the complete recovery from the Great Recession.”
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
It was anticipated the local economic statistics for April would be negative, but the numbers weren’t as bad as expected, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.
“This report is one of the weakest we have filed in our 40-year history; however, the data we collected in the third and fourth weeks of April did not turn out to be a record low,” he said.
Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of April.
The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) fell to -45 from -21. Long noted at the onset of the Great Recession, new orders fell to -59 in December 2008.
The production index fell to -48 from -16. The index of purchases fell to -44 from -30, and the employment index plummeted to -41 from -25.
Long said during the Great Recession, it took 18 months (October 2007 to April 2009) for statistics in this local survey to turn back to positive.
“As the economy slowly reopens, we will be closely monitoring the confidence levels of both retail and industrial consumers, both of which have been hit very hard,” he said.
Had it not been for Internet purchases, Long said, auto sales would have been virtually non-existent. He said automakers and dealers have countered many of the lockdown measures with remote and online sales, but U.S. light-vehicle deliveries were expected to fall 50-55 percent in April.
Long said COVID-19 will cause nearly every industry to reevaluate supply chains. “Many firms had no idea that many subcomponents back in the supply chain were coming from China,” he said. “Look for an anti-China backlash.”
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
In the 40-year history of a Grand Valley State University economic survey, the economic situation in West Michigan has seldom looked this grim, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley’s Seidman College of Business.
“Although negative, much of our data collected in the third and fourth weeks of March do not begin to reflect the impact of recent events,” said Long.
Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of March.
The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) slipped to -21 from +7. The production index dropped to -16 from +2. The index of purchases plunged to -30 from +9, and the employment index plummeted to -25 from +9.
Long said the Detroit automakers made good on their promise to report only 2020 quarterly sales, which reflect the aggregate of positive sales months of January and February and the negative month of March. “Even then, sales were off considerably,” he said.
Long said at this early stage, assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is almost impossible, but said “we are now in a historical collapse.”
“If, by some miracle, we were to have a viable vaccine in the next few months that could be widely distributed, the economy would quickly begin to recover,” said Long. “However, some marginal businesses have already been forced to close, and there will surely be more to follow. Unfortunately, this crisis is still just beginning.”
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
The West Michigan industrial economy remains marginally soft, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.
Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of January.
The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) edged down to -9 from -7, but continues to be ahead of October’s much weaker -21. The production index recovered to -2 from -7. The index of purchases remained negative at -6 from -17, and the employment index fell to -7 from -2.
Long said the West Michigan economy is poised for a period of slower growth entering 2020.
He said the tariff wars are not over, but there has been progress. The new tariff agreement with Canada and Mexico will correct some inequities that have popped up over the past 26 years. “For West Michigan, the biggest beneficiaries will be our local auto parts producers who will have their tariffs to Canada reduced or eliminated,” he said.
Long said some West Michigan farmers may benefit from the Phase I trade agreement with China.
“Many of the tariffs that have disrupted Chinese pricing for many commodities and sub-assemblies for some of our local businesses are not included in the agreement,” said Long. “The agreement may contain a lot of loopholes that could allow China to fudge compliance numbers. In fact, it may be a year before we know if the agreement has actually done us any good.”
Long said the coronavirus could slightly dampen the world economy. “The CDC tells us that a vaccine is still about 12-14 months away, so world travel and other measures to contain the spread may put a dent in the Chinese economy, as well as other economies around the world, including our own,” he said.
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
For more information, contact Brian Long at 269-870-0428.
While 2019 got off to a slow start in January, February’s report for the West Michigan economy shows a return to a pattern of slow growth that has been reported for nearly 10 years, according to Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.
Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of February.
The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) bounced back to +16 from -4. In a similar move, the production index rose to +16 from +4. The index of purchases also bounced to +16 from +3, and the employment index rose to +17 from +14.
Long said several business leaders continue to voice concerns over the still unresolved tariff war with China, and others are cautious about the potential decline in auto sales.
“Although several of our local auto parts producers remain modestly pessimistic about the prospects for 2019, we have yet to see any significant weakening in our local firms,” said Long. “Overall, the mood remains watchfully optimistic.”
Long said business confidence rebounded in February, after posting some near-record lows in January.
He said despite the weakness in last month’s survey, the employment index continues to remain double-digit positive.
“Employers are still complaining that they cannot find enough qualified workers,” he said.
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
For the West Michigan industrial economy, September was strong, October was stronger and November was the best month of the year, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.
Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of November.
Brian Long, photo from gvsu.edu
The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) edged higher to +38, from +36. The production index edged up to +33, from +30. The index of purchases rose to +36, from +32, and the employment index came in at +25, up slightly from +24.
Long said November’s bad news from the automotive sector came from General Motors; the company plans to close three plants associated with small car production and lay off 14,000 workers, presumably to get ahead of the predicted slump in auto sales for 2019.
“Although auto sales continue to soften, our West Michigan auto parts suppliers continue to report positive business conditions and remain cautiously optimistic about the first half of 2019,” he said.
The 2017 tax incentives may have run their course for at least some of the capital equipment firms, Long said, and business conditions remain strong for most industrial distributors.
He added that the office furniture industry is profitable at the current level, but the expansion for this phase of the business cycle for office furniture is apparently over. “The ‘sugar high’ for office furniture sales brought on by the 2017 tax reform package has now run its course,” said Long.
Looking forward, Long said unless trade talks with China break down, there is no apparent problem in the short term that will upset the economy for the first half of 2019.
Other report highlights:
* Some firms are seeing falling prices for some key commodities. However, the tariffs are still being used as an excuse to raise prices.
* Year-over-year unemployment rates are still running about a full percentage point below a year ago.
* Hiring and retaining new workers continues to be a big problem for some firms, but with the current hesitancy in the economy, this problem may be receding.
* The European economy continues to slow. Not collapse, just slow. The Italian fiscal budget problem is not yet resolved, and could cause trouble for the other eurozone countries.
* Mike Dunlap survey of the office furniture firms clearly depicts an industry that is topping out.
* Our two largest trading partners are Canada and Mexico. The Mexican PMI dipped to 49.7 in November, down from 50.7. However, the Canadian PMI upticked to 54.9 in November from September’s 53.9.
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
I recently attended a meeting in the greater Grand Rapids area where the discussion centered on how we can benefit Michigan and its communities. In typical brainstorm fashion, our large group was divided into smaller tables to discuss and generate ideas which would be reported out to the larger group.
After one group’s suggestion that we help communities recruit individuals, an audience member respectfully suggested, “Why grow?” When the response was “to keep our communities from stagnating,” the audience member persisted that growth is bad, causing unnecessary congestion and build out, and that we should learn to live with what we have. Polite as the discussion was, I resisted the urge to jump up and debate the topic that day.
So there is no misunderstanding, growth is a good thing, if done right. There are countless examples from the old days, and unfortunately present day too, of poorly managed growth in urban sprawl, over taxing of utilities, etc. That is bad growth.
Communities are just like people, they are either green and growing or ripe and rotting, nothing stays the same. Each of us tries to grow personally, professionally and keep in shape, as a result we are better than we were before. In fact, we can choose to continually grow and improve. Yes, we all know that one guy from high school that 20 years later is still sitting on the couch re-living the same game-winning-touchdown-pass he caught. That is an example of no growth. Communities are the same, they can’t sit around remembering the good ol’ days. Instead, they need to look forward and position themselves for a positive, productive future.
If you’ve been paying attention, Michigan has been hemorrhaging for 10 years when three major companies ended 400,000+ manufacturing jobs. This created a ripple effect and tailspin of people leaving our state, taking their skilled talents and families with them. Although Michigan has done many things right and we are gaining back ground, we still need talent. We need people to move back to Michigan bringing their skills and talents, but also their families, ideas and civic involvement. It is this growth that Michigan and our communities desperately need in order to be a vibrant state.
Here’s the fun part. Yes, we have to encourage and embrace growth in order to be better, but we must be smart about it. As communities and as a state we need to decide what type of growth works, where best to encourage it and what happens when it comes. In other words, we must do some advanced planning so that the growth we so desperately need is organized, positive and helps us get to where we want to go.
And here’s the really fun part, there are loads of people and resources out there that can help. From your local economic development organization, in our case the Northern Lakes Economic Alliance, to the MSU Extension, regional planning agencies such as Networks Northwest or the Northeast Michigan Council of Governments to the Michigan Municipal League and others.
Michigan has a bright future, and I hope growth will be part of it!
Michigan State University Extension has had a unique relationship with the regional economic development organization Northern Lakes Economic Alliance (NLEA) for more than 20 years. Recognizing the strength of combining resources, this partnership focuses on economic development, entrepreneurship growth and community infrastructure throughout a four-county region in the northwest Lower Peninsula, specifically Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan and Emmet counties. As a result, the NLEA utilizes resources offered through MSU Extension as it provides leadership to statewide programs sponsored by MSU Extension.
Peters Consumer Protection Provisions Pass the Senate
On March 16, the Senate passed two consumer protection provisions introduced by U.S. Senator Gary Peters that will help private student loan borrowers rehabilitate their credit and protect children from identity theft. The provisions were approved as part of a broader banking bill.
“Student debt is one of the biggest hurdles to financial success for young people,” said Senator Peters. “My commonsense provision will help student loan borrowers in default fix their mistakes and get back on track, while increasing the likelihood of repayment for lenders.”
Under current law, federal loans may be rehabilitated one time, and borrowers can repair their credit by removing a default. However, private lenders currently do not have the ability to remove negative credit information on borrowers who participate in loan rehabilitation programs. Peters’ provision, based on the bipartisan Federal Adjustment in Reporting (FAIR) Student Credit Act, he introduced with Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) would allow private student loan borrowers who have successfully completed a series of on-time payments to remove a default from their credit report. More here.
Peters Floor Remarks on Supporting Small Farmers
Peters’ Bipartisan Bill Would Strengthen Loan Program for Small Farmers
U.S. Senator Gary Peters (MI), spoke on the Senate floor March 15 on the need to preserve access to capital for small and disadvantaged farmers to start and grow their operations. This week, Peters introduced the Farm Service Agency Loan Flexibility Act, which will provide greater flexibility for the FSA loan program to provide loan and loan guarantees to farmers during periods of high demand. More here.
Committee Approves Peters Bills to Support Small Businesses
Bipartisan Bills Improve Awareness of Employee Stock Ownership Plans and Help Small Businesses Access Patent Protections
On March 15, the Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee approved two bipartisan bills introduced by U.S. Senator Gary Peters (MI) that support small businesses. Peters’ bills will increase awareness of Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOPs) and help small businesses protect their intellectual property through patents. Peters introduced both bills with U.S. Senator Jim Risch (R-ID). More here.
Peters Statement on Bipartisan Bill to Boost Consumer Protections and Support Economic Growth
On March 14, U.S. Senator Gary Peters (D-MI) issued the following statement on Senate passage of the bipartisan Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act:
“Commonsense financial regulation is essential to supporting Michigan families, growing our economy, and creating jobs. I am proud to have served on the House Financial Services Committee and the conference committee that wrote and finalized Dodd-Frank. This important law cracked down on risky trading and created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to protect American families. I am committed to defending these critical consumer protections and ensuring our financial regulators have the necessary tools to keep our economy stable and growing…” More here.
Peters, Colleagues Tell FCC That Mobility Fund Map Has ‘Gaps’
On March 12, U.S. Senator Gary Peters (D-MI), joineda bipartisan group of Senators in sending a letter to Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Ajit Pai expressing serious concerns about the agency’s recently released Mobility Fund Phase II (MF II) map. The purpose of this fund is to allocate $4.53 billion over the next 10 years to preserve and expand mobile coverage to rural areas. More here.
Huizenga: Pregnancy Resource Centers Should Be Treasured, Not Targeted By Government
On March 14, Congressman Bill Huizenga spoke in support of pregnancy resource centers, the important role they play in communities across West Michigan, and the freedom of conscience. More here.
The Senate Financial Reform Legislation Should Be The Floor, Not The Ceiling
On March 14, Capital Markets, Securities, and Investment Subcommittee ChairmanBill Huizenga (MI-02) released the following statement after the Senate passed bipartisan legislation to reform Dodd-Frank and provide much needed relief to community and regional financial institutions.
“For years we have seen the one-size fits all regulatory structure of Dodd-Frank slow economic growth and reduce the ability of community financial institutions to lend to hardworking families and small business job creators across the nation. The bipartisan Senate legislation to reform Dodd-Frank is a good start; however it should be viewed as the floor, not the ceiling. Currently, there are dozens of noncontroversial, bipartisan bills that have passed the House dealing with additional issues that negatively impact consumers. I look forward to taking this opportunity to work with my colleagues to strengthen the Senate reform package and include some of the bipartisan measures passed by the House to make the final legislation even more effective.”
The West Michigan economy continues to show positive growth, and the national industrial economy remains very strong, according to a Grand Valley State University expert.
“This is probably as good as it’s going to get,” said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business. “If we continue this way to 2019, it will be the longest post-war recovery in history without sliding into another recession.”
Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of October.
The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) remained positive at +11, but declined from +21 in September. The production index posted a modest gain, rising from +17 to +20. The index of purchases rose to +21 from +14, and the employment index remained positive at +14, down from +17.
Long said most of the auto parts suppliers are still maintaining their present status, with a similar mood noted among the office furniture firms. He said October was generally a good month for industrial distributors.
The local index of employment remained double-digit positive, while the official unemployment rate nationally has fallen to 4.1 percent. “That’s only a breath away from the 20-year low of 3.8 percent,” said Long.
The national industrial economy also remains very strong, according to Long.
“U.S. manufacturing stepped up a gear at the start of the fourth quarter, boding well for higher factory production to support robust economic growth in the closing months of 2017,” he said. “Production volumes jumped higher and growth in factory jobs picked up to one of the strongest levels since the global financial crisis, underscoring the improvement in optimism about future trading among manufacturers.”
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
The West Michigan economy is going strong and the trend should continue, according to a Grand Valley State University expert.
Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business, surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of September.
The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) came in at +21, above last month’s +19. The production index eased to +17 from +20. The index of purchases slowed to +14 from +24, and the employment index remained positive at +17, up from +21.
Long said for auto sales, the September report reversed the negative pattern of the past six months.
“Most auto parts suppliers have been concerned throughout the summer about the slower auto sales, so the September bounce in sales seems to have forestalled any immediate fear of an automotive recession lurking around the corner,” said Long. “The major office furniture firms still appear to be topping out at the present level, but the smaller firms are having a little more success.”
Business optimism is strong in West Michigan and the economy for the rest of the world continues to improve, Long said.
“Canada and Mexico, our two largest trading partners, turned in strong reports for September,” he said. “Whereas most of the major economies were improving over the summer, growth in September slowed in China, Japan and the UK.”
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
For over 28 years, Dr. Brian Long has edited a survey of local purchasing managers for both the Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids areas, which has proved to be a major indicator of current and future business conditions. This survey appears in many local newspapers and national business publications, including the Grand Rapids Press, MiBiz, and the Grand Rapids Business Journal. The survey is also a component of the Federal Reserve’s bimonthly survey of business conditions.
Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU
After a summer lull, the West Michigan economy resumed the positive growth pattern the area has seen for the past eight years, according to a Grand Valley State University expert.
Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business, surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of August. See the full report here.
The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) came in at +19, well above last month’s +8. The production index increased to +20 from +6. The index of purchases moved higher to +24 from +12, and the employment index remained positive at +21, up from +20.
Long said most auto parts suppliers continue to express concern about slower sales figures that have been reported every month since the beginning of the year, but, so far, none of the firms in the local survey are talking about major sales declines.
He added that some capital equipment firms are reporting weaker sales due to the slowdown in the auto parts industry.
Long said that the office furniture industry continues to show signs of topping out at the present level, but no significant setbacks have been reported.
“Most firms realize that we are now over eight years into the recovery from the Great Recession, but none of the respondents feel that a major decline is coming any time soon,” he said. “Having successfully recovered from one of the sharpest dips in recent history, many of our local firms have wisely resisted the temptation to over expand.”
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
For over 28 years, Dr. Brian Long has edited a survey of local purchasing managers for both the Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids areas, which has proved to be a major indicator of current and future business conditions. This survey appears in many local newspapers and national business publications, including the Grand Rapids Press, MiBiz, and the Grand Rapids Business Journal. The survey is also a component of the Federal Reserve’s bimonthly survey of business conditions.
After six months of disappointing car sales, the impact on local auto parts suppliers is finally being felt by the West Michigan economy, a Grand Valley State University expert said.
Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business, said: “It’s not a collapse, just a modest tapering of the growth rate. Growth is still growth.”
Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of July.
The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) came in at +8, considerably below last month’s +31. The production index eased to +6 from +26. The index of purchases tapered to +12 from +22, and the employment index is still very positive, falling slightly to +20 from +23.
Long said business conditions for the auto parts suppliers have turned mixed, based on the specific car or truck lines companies are supporting. Some have been forced to cut production because of slow vehicle sales.
“For the sixth straight month, auto sales for July are lower,” said Long. “The 6.9 percent drop is the largest so far this year, although most of the decline came from a 15 percent drop in the sale of sedans (regular cars) verses a 1.9 percent drop in light trucks and SUVs.”
With the production of 2017 models now finished, Long said analysts are still worried about the bloated dealer inventories which are much higher than they were before the Great Recession. Compounding the problem is the large number of vehicles coming off lease.
Long said the office furniture industry is still stable while the capital equipment market remains mixed, and the slowdown in the auto parts industry has resulted in the cancellation of further expansion by some firms. He said many segments of the West Michigan tourist industry are poised to have a record year, and the agricultural industry will have a good year as well.
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”
For over 28 years, Dr. Brian Long has edited a survey of local purchasing managers for both the Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids areas, which has proved to be a major indicator of current and future business conditions. This survey appears in many local newspapers and national business publications, including the Grand Rapids Press, MiBiz, and the Grand Rapids Business Journal. The survey is also a component of the Federal Reserve’s bimonthly survey of business conditions.
