By Chris Knape
Grand Valley State University

The West Michigan economy appears to have flattened, but has not yet contracted into a recession, according to the latest monthly survey data released by Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

The September survey of purchasing managers conducted by Brian Long, director of supply chain research at GVSU, found steady demand among automotive suppliers offsetting more negative news about orders coming from sectors like the office furniture industry.

“Of our cyclical industries in West Michigan, our automotive parts producers are continuing to stay fairly busy, but not so much so with our office furniture companies and anything related to capital equipment where the markets are starting to soften — not collapse — just soften,” Long said.

Lower commodity prices for goods like metals and plastic resins will take months to find their way into consumer prices, while energy costs could offset lower costs in some areas, he said.

For the survey, released Oct. 10, the sales/new orders index was flat in September after going into negative territory in July and August.

Production levels were also flat, with a majority of survey respondents reporting output being the same as it was in August.

Long said he’s about 80 percent certain the region is sliding into a “shallow recession,” based on the national trends and feedback he hears from inside the region’s industrial employers.

“The confidence situation has clearly worsened the short-term business outlook index for September,” he said. “However, the long-term business outlook, which queries perceptions for the next three to five years, still remains positive, just not nearly as strong as it was six months ago.”