Tag Archives: Seidman College of Business

GVSU economist: Strong October for West Michigan

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Brian Long, photo from gvsu.edu

By Dottie Barnes

GVSU

 

The economic pace for West Michigan was strong in September, but October was even stronger, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

 

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of October.

 

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) rose confidently to +36, from +28. The production index edged up to +30, from +29. The index of purchases rose to +29, from +21, and the employment index came in at +24, down from +29.

 

Long said auto sales numbers continue to surprise many economists. “After all the talk about auto sales softening, the October sales report from Automotive News posted a minor gain of 0.4 percent,” Long said. “The seasonally adjusted sales rate (SAAR) rose to 17.59 million vehicles from 17.44 in September.”

 

Long said year-over-year unemployment rates continue to fall; Kent County is at 2.6 percent, Ottawa County is at 2.5 percent and Kalamazoo County is at 3.0 percent.

 

The current economy is about as good as it gets, Long said. “Hiring and retaining new workers continues to be a big problem for some firms, so we can’t expect much more expansion.”

 

Long said there has been an interesting twist on the tariffs. “Because of some Chinese firms experiencing declining business, they have been willing to cut prices enough to cover the cost of the tariffs,” he said.

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

GVSU economist: 2018 ‘bounce’ continues

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Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU

By Dottie Barnes

Grand Valley State University

 

For West Michigan, the first quarter of 2018 has started on strong footing, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

 

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of March.

 

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) rose to +34, slightly better than last month’s +32. The production index held steady at +31. The index of purchases jumped sharply to +37 from +22, and the employment index edged up to +19, from +16.

 

“The bounce we reported last month has continued and the general mood remains optimistic,” said Long, “but the pricing pressure brought on by the recently announced tariffs has added a new dimension of stress to many purchasing offices. We have not seen this level of price pressure in several years.”

 

Long said the “floodgates” of new orders were opened immediately after the corporate tax cuts were signed into law. He said the recent bounce in auto sales appears to have quelled the fears that local automotive parts producers may be starting to slow.

 

Despite the shortage of labor, Long said several companies are still growing. “The strength of the economy has resulted in the office furniture industry holding steady,” he said. “Although there are a couple of exceptions, most of our industrial distributors are participating in the uptick of business and almost all of the manufacturing firms still cannot find enough new workers to fill open positions.”

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

 

For over 28 years, Dr. Brian Long has edited a survey of local purchasing managers for both the Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids areas, which has proved to be a major indicator of current and future business conditions.  This survey appears in many local newspapers and national business publications, including the Grand Rapids Press, MiBiz, and the Grand Rapids Business Journal.  The survey is also a component of the Federal Reserve’s bimonthly survey of business conditions. 

GVSU economist: Local economy will be strong in 2018

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Brian Long, photo from gvsu.edu

By Dottie Barnes

Grand Valley State University

 

The West Michigan economy looks strong for the new year, according to a Grand Valley State University expert.

 

“We are heading into 2018 with a full head of steam,” said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business. “I don’t see anything on the horizon that will trip us up.”

 

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of November.

 

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) rose to +20 from +11. The production index backtracked slightly to +17 from +20. The index of purchases eased to +18 from +22, and the employment stayed positive at +13, down slightly from +14.

 

Long said the November performance for most groups was mixed.

 

“Despite the modest softening in auto sales, the local auto parts producers remain surprisingly strong, even though they continue to voice concern about possible slower auto sales as we head into 2018,” he said. “It is currently the slow season for office furniture sales, and the industry still appears to be topping out at the present level.”

 

Long said some of the smaller office furniture firms are still expanding, and for most industrial distributors, November was one of their better months. “A plateau seems to be forming for the capital equipment industry, but recent proposed changes in the tax law could result in improved conditions in 2018,” he said.

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

 

For over 28 years, Dr. Brian Long has edited a survey of local purchasing managers for both the Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids areas, which has proved to be a major indicator of current and future business conditions.  This survey appears in many local newspapers and national business publications, including the Grand Rapids Press, MiBiz, and the Grand Rapids Business Journal.  The survey is also a component of the Federal Reserve’s bimonthly survey of business conditions. 

GVSU economist: Slower growth for local economy

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Brian Long is a local business forecaster. (Adrian Johnson / Kalamazoo Gazette)

By Dottie Barnes

Grand Valley State University

 

After six months of disappointing car sales, the impact on local auto parts suppliers is finally being felt by the West Michigan economy, a Grand Valley State University expert said.

 

Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business, said: “It’s not a collapse, just a modest tapering of the growth rate. Growth is still growth.”

 

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of July.

 

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) came in at +8, considerably below last month’s +31. The production index eased to +6 from +26. The index of purchases tapered to +12 from +22, and the employment index is still very positive, falling slightly to +20 from +23.

 

Long said business conditions for the auto parts suppliers have turned mixed, based on the specific car or truck lines companies are supporting. Some have been forced to cut production because of slow vehicle sales.

 

“For the sixth straight month, auto sales for July are lower,” said Long. “The 6.9 percent drop is the largest so far this year, although most of the decline came from a 15 percent drop in the sale of sedans (regular cars) verses a 1.9 percent drop in light trucks and SUVs.”

 

With the production of 2017 models now finished, Long said analysts are still worried about the bloated dealer inventories which are much higher than they were before the Great Recession. Compounding the problem is the large number of vehicles coming off lease.

 

Long said the office furniture industry is still stable while the capital equipment market remains mixed, and the slowdown in the auto parts industry has resulted in the cancellation of further expansion by some firms. He said many segments of the West Michigan tourist industry are poised to have a record year, and the agricultural industry will have a good year as well.

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

 

For over 28 years, Dr. Brian Long has edited a survey of local purchasing managers for both the Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids areas, which has proved to be a major indicator of current and future business conditions.  This survey appears in many local newspapers and national business publications, including the Grand Rapids Press, MiBiz, and the Grand Rapids Business Journal.  The survey is also a component of the Federal Reserve’s bimonthly survey of business conditions. 

GVSU economist: Local economy remains on track

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Brian Long, photo from gvsu.edu

The West Michigan economy is still growing, a Grand Valley State University economist said.

 

Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business, surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of June.

 

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) came in at +31, a modest improvement over last month’s +27. The production index edged up to +26 from +19. The index of purchases remained virtually unchanged at +22, while the employment index jumped to +23 from +13.

 

Long said slower auto sales have resulted in most auto parts suppliers showing signs of plateauing, but no major firms have reported a significant drop in sales. He said some firms have seen an uptick in quoting activity.

 

Long also said the office furniture industry continues to show signs of topping out, but no decline appears to be on the horizon. “Because of the apparent topping out for some of our local industries, the capital equipment market remains mixed, and the bias is still to the down side,” he said. “For the industrial distributors, the summer maintenance schedules have given some firms a slight boost.”

 

The West Michigan employment picture continues to be a bright spot for the local economy, Long said. Ottawa County has the lowest unemployment rate in the state at 2.6 percent, and Kent County tied for third lowest at 2.8 percent. The current Michigan unemployment rate stands at 4.2 percent.

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

 

Brian G. Long, Ph.D, C.P.M., serves as Director of Supply Management research for the Seidman College of Business at Grand Valley State University. Dr. Long earned a B.S. and M.B.A. from Central Michigan University, and a Ph.D. in Marketing from Michigan State University.  He is also a Certified Purchasing Manager. 

 

For over 28 years, Dr. Long has edited a survey of local purchasing managers for both the Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids areas, which has proved to be a major indicator of current and future business conditions.  This survey appears in many local newspapers and national business publications, including the Grand Rapids Press, MiBiz, and the Grand Rapids Business Journal.  The survey is also a component of the Federal Reserve’s bimonthly survey of business conditions.