Tag Archives: Supply Management Research

GVSU economist: More growth, pace improves

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Brian Long, photo from gvsu.edu

By Dottie Barnes

GVSU

 

The economic pace for West Michigan picked up in the month of September, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

 

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of September.

 

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) edged up to +28, from +21. The production index rose sharply to +29, from +16. The index of purchases edged higher to +21, from +15, and the employment index improved to +29, up from +21.

 

Long said growth remains positive for most sectors in the West Michigan economy.

 

“Although auto sales continue to soften, the decline has, so far, been very orderly. Business conditions for the local auto parts suppliers remain positive,” Long said. “Although the office furniture business plateaued last year, the new tax incentives have continued to boost many segments of the industry. Local firms producing capital equipment are also continuing to benefit from the tax incentives enacted in late 2017.”

 

Long said the tax cuts will continue to move the U.S. economy in a positive direction, but uncertainty about the trade talks will limit future economic growth.

 

“Recessions have historically occurred when a proverbial ‘bubble breaks.’ The problem is identifying the bubble,” Long said. “After the collapse of the housing market, it was obvious that the banks buried themselves in sub-prime loans. Today, we have several bubbles that are starting to form, but none of them appear to be great enough to upset the current economic momentum.”

 

Long added the recent report of a new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico relaxed some of the fear of an international trade war.

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

GVSU economist: 2018 ‘bounce’ continues

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Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU

By Dottie Barnes

Grand Valley State University

 

For West Michigan, the first quarter of 2018 has started on strong footing, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

 

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of March.

 

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) rose to +34, slightly better than last month’s +32. The production index held steady at +31. The index of purchases jumped sharply to +37 from +22, and the employment index edged up to +19, from +16.

 

“The bounce we reported last month has continued and the general mood remains optimistic,” said Long, “but the pricing pressure brought on by the recently announced tariffs has added a new dimension of stress to many purchasing offices. We have not seen this level of price pressure in several years.”

 

Long said the “floodgates” of new orders were opened immediately after the corporate tax cuts were signed into law. He said the recent bounce in auto sales appears to have quelled the fears that local automotive parts producers may be starting to slow.

 

Despite the shortage of labor, Long said several companies are still growing. “The strength of the economy has resulted in the office furniture industry holding steady,” he said. “Although there are a couple of exceptions, most of our industrial distributors are participating in the uptick of business and almost all of the manufacturing firms still cannot find enough new workers to fill open positions.”

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

 

For over 28 years, Dr. Brian Long has edited a survey of local purchasing managers for both the Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids areas, which has proved to be a major indicator of current and future business conditions.  This survey appears in many local newspapers and national business publications, including the Grand Rapids Press, MiBiz, and the Grand Rapids Business Journal.  The survey is also a component of the Federal Reserve’s bimonthly survey of business conditions. 

GVSU economist: Local economy will be strong in 2018

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Brian Long, photo from gvsu.edu

By Dottie Barnes

Grand Valley State University

 

The West Michigan economy looks strong for the new year, according to a Grand Valley State University expert.

 

“We are heading into 2018 with a full head of steam,” said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business. “I don’t see anything on the horizon that will trip us up.”

 

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of November.

 

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) rose to +20 from +11. The production index backtracked slightly to +17 from +20. The index of purchases eased to +18 from +22, and the employment stayed positive at +13, down slightly from +14.

 

Long said the November performance for most groups was mixed.

 

“Despite the modest softening in auto sales, the local auto parts producers remain surprisingly strong, even though they continue to voice concern about possible slower auto sales as we head into 2018,” he said. “It is currently the slow season for office furniture sales, and the industry still appears to be topping out at the present level.”

 

Long said some of the smaller office furniture firms are still expanding, and for most industrial distributors, November was one of their better months. “A plateau seems to be forming for the capital equipment industry, but recent proposed changes in the tax law could result in improved conditions in 2018,” he said.

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

 

For over 28 years, Dr. Brian Long has edited a survey of local purchasing managers for both the Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids areas, which has proved to be a major indicator of current and future business conditions.  This survey appears in many local newspapers and national business publications, including the Grand Rapids Press, MiBiz, and the Grand Rapids Business Journal.  The survey is also a component of the Federal Reserve’s bimonthly survey of business conditions.